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Risk assessment and play fairway analysis in frontier basins: Part 2—Examples from offshore mid-Norway

¹ BP Norge A.S., P.O. Box 197, Stavanger, Norway; fugelle{at}bp.com
² BP Norge A.S., P.O. Box 197, Stavanger N-4065, Norway

Edith M. G. Fugelli received an M.Sc. degree in sedimentology from the University of Oslo, Norway, in 1987. She has worked in the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate and Statoil and joined BP Norge in 2001, where she is currently working as a senior regional geologist. Her interests are sequence and seismic stratigraphy, paleotectonic influences on depositional systems, and outcrop to seismic-defined reservoir characterization.Tina R. Olsen received her M.Sc. degree from the University of Copenhagen, Denmark, in 1993 and her Ph.D. from the University of Bergen, Norway, in 1996. She joined Amoco in 1996 and is currently working as a senior reservoir geologist with BP Norge in Stavanger, Norway. Olsen specializes in sedimentology and stratigraphy and her areas of expertise cover exploration, development, and production geology on the Norwegian continental shelf.

This article documents the methodology and results of a risk analysis for seven plays in the frontier Møre and Vøring basins. The play types represent different deep-marine systems and span a complete transect from upper slope to basin floor. Because of the sparse well data coverage typical of frontier basins, the play models are seismically driven, resulting in high-level qualitative risk assessments, dividing the plays into low-, medium-, and high-risk categories. The objectives of the risk assessment were both to develop an understanding of the distribution of promising reservoir thickness, architecture, and net to gross in each play type and, further, to evaluate the range of uncertainties of the depositional model and the quality of the available database. We demonstrate here how the effect of perceptions of risk in constituting a valid play can be evaluated during the ranking process and how the process can be used to systematically screen for future exploration opportunities.

The workflow is rooted in a risk analysis of the geological models because this represents an integrated interpretation of the geology with respect to reservoir distribution, architecture, and presence of seal. In conclusion, the prerequisites for proper qualitative risk assessment of geological models are an awareness of reservoir variability and the range of depositional attributes. Play risk consists of regional risk elements, determined by regional depositional models. Equally important is the uncertainty introduced by poor or lacking data. Differentiating between play risk and lack of data improved decision making, i.e., whether to acquire acreage, data, or both.

This article has been cited by other articles:

				E. M. G. Fugelli and T. R. Olsen Screening for deep-marine reservoirs in frontier basins: Part 1--Examples from offshore mid-Norway AAPG Bulletin, July 1, 2005; 89(7): 853 - 882. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]