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AAPG Bulletin; August 2000; v. 84; no. 8; p. 1087-1094; DOI: 10.1306/A9673C3E-1738-11D7-8645000102C1865D
© 2000 American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG)
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Geologic Note

Error Estimation in Decompacted Subsidence Curves

D. Waltham1, C. Taberner2 and C. Docherty3

1 Department of Geology, Royal Holloway University of London, Egham, Surrey TW20 0EX, United Kingdom; d.waltham{at}gl.rhbnc.ac.uk
2 Institut de Cièncias de la Terra, CSIC, C/ Lluís solé I Sugrañes s/n, Barcelona 08028, Spain
3 Institut de Cièncias de la Terra, CSIC, C/ Lluís solé I Sugrañes s/n, Barcelona 08028, Spain; present address: GX Technology, Lawrence House, 45 High Street, Egham, Surrey TW20 9DP, United Kingdom

Dave Waltham received a B.Sc. degree in pure physics (Leicester) in 1981 and a Ph.D. (London) in signal processing in 1985. After two years working for Seismograph Service Ltd., he moved to Royal Holloway, University of London, as a lecturer in geophysics. His main research interest is computer forward modeling of geophysical, tectonic, and sedimentary processes. He is a Fellow of the Geological Society of London.Conxita Taberner received her B.S. and M.S. degrees in geology from the Autonomous University of Barcelona (both in 1978) and her Ph.D. from the University of Barcelona (1983). She has been a researcher at the Institute of Earth Sciences (CSIC) in Barcelona since 1988. Her main research interests are in carbonate sedimentology and diagenesis.

Craig Docherty gained his B.Sc. degree in geology (London) in 1982. He worked for ARCO until 1984 and gained his M.Sc. degree in marine geophysics (London) in 1985. He was awarded his Ph.D. from Barcelona in 1993 and researched there and in Kiel (Germany) on basin dynamics. In 1997, he joined GX Technology EAME as an imaging geophysicist. He has published on aspects of his academic and industrial career and is a member of the Society of Exploration Geophysicists, European Association of Geoscientists and Engineers, and Petroleum Exploration Society of Great Britain.

Subsidence curves, based on decompacted sediment thicknesses, are generally displayed without indicating depth or age errors. This makes their interpretation ambiguous, leading to incorrect identification of subsidence pulses and incorrect identification of periods of steady subsidence. Error analysis should also form part of thermal maturation studies based on such subsidence curves. Formal error analysis of subsidence curves is a complex problem because of the iterative and nonlinear nature of the decompaction calculations. This paper presents an alternative approach, based on Monte Carlo simulation, that allows subsidence curves to be calculated along with error estimates. We also show that identification of subsidence pulses and identification of periods of steady subsidence cannot be made on the basis of such subsidence curves, even when errors are shown, because errors on successive points on the subsidence curves are correlated. Instead, an ensemble of subsidence rate curves must be calculated at the same time as the ensemble of subsidence curves so that a mean subsidence rate curve can be calculated along with associated error estimates.




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